I am not big on predictions, but this one feels safe. We are in a predictable phase of the New Tech Cycle. Right now, the cycle favors technology over people. My bet is that by mid-2026, people start making a real comeback.

That comeback is not anti-tech. It is what happens when leaders realize the hype phase is done, the costs are visible, and the only sustainable advantage left is what your people can do with the tools.

The cycle we keep repeating

New tools arrive. Nobody understands them. Then everybody “needs” them. Then comes the overreach. Jobs get threatened. The loudest voices confuse speed with wisdom. The vibe shifts from possibility to backlash.

We are living in that part of the cycle right now. The temptation is to opt out. But opting out does not stop the future. It just hands the steering wheel to whoever is least bothered by consequences.

The flip side is the only version that works

Here is the version of the cycle I actually want to live in. Thoughtful, strategic, ethical, human-first integration of new tech makes your people stronger. And people are what make companies stronger.

A clock graphic titled The People and New Tech Cycle

How to succeed with new tech in 2026 and beyond

If you want your team to be on the right side of the shift, aim for moves that increase human capability, not moves that erase humans.

  1. Make literacy the baseline. Training beats fear. The teams that win are the ones who understand what the tools can and cannot do.
  2. Measure outcomes, not adoption. Do not track “usage” like it is success. Track time saved, quality improved, risk reduced, and learning accelerated.
  3. Automate drudgery, not judgment. Use AI to remove repetitive work so people can do the parts that require taste, context, empathy, and accountability.
  4. Build rules that protect trust. Clear guidelines on sourcing, review, disclosure, privacy, and safety prevent the inevitable chaos phase.
  5. Reward the builders, not the hype merchants. Promote the people turning tools into durable workflows, not the people doing performative demos.
  6. Keep humans accountable. If an AI-influenced decision harms someone, “the model did it” is not an answer. Someone owns the system.

Mid-2026 is when the conversation changes. The winners will not be the companies with the most tools. They will be the companies with the strongest people, using tools on purpose.

Show up. Learn the tech. Shape how it gets used. That is how we get the people comeback.